Transcript: First Look - The Washington Post

Publish date: 2024-08-07

MR. CAPEHART: It’s like--it’s like the start of an action movie. Welcome to this special in-person special edition of “First Look,” Washington Post Live’s one-stop shop for news and analysis. I’m Jonathan Capehart, associated editor at The Washington Post.

Since last week’s "First Look" the former Republican president accepted his party’s nomination again. The sitting Democratic president ended his reelection campaign, throwing his support behind his vice president. And the party usually in disarray is united more now than ever.

[Applause]

SEN. KAINE: You’re welcome.

MR. CAPEHART: Oh, and the House has left town until September 9th, but whatevs. Joining me now to put the presidential race into perspective, Senator Tim Kaine, Democrat from Virginia.

[Applause]

And as you may recall, he was Hillary Clinton’s vice presidential running mate in 2016. Senator Kaine, welcome to "First Look."

SEN. KAINE: Jonathan, I’m thrilled to be with everybody to start the day here.

MR. CAPEHART: So on Wednesday, in a historical Oval Office address President Biden spoke with power and humility about his accomplishments and the need to pass the torch to a younger generation. Your thoughts on President Biden’s speech?

SEN. KAINE: It was emotional. It was very emotional. I mean, even knowing the news from Sunday, watching that speech, Joe Biden did what very few have done. Washington, Polk, Teddy Roosevelt, LBJ are the only presidents who could have run again but chose a different path. They thought the nation needed something different. And that is extremely hard to do. Joe Biden has done a great job as a senator, vice president, president. It’s the most powerful position in the world. He has accomplishments that he can be proud of. He clearly wants to keep going, but to say the time is right to pass the torch, it was an incredible act of patriotism and humility and it was very moving.

MR. CAPEHART: The chaos leading up to his announcement on Sunday has given way to a startlingly quick coalescing around Vice President Harris, and we will talk about her in just a moment. But all this went down one month before the DNC in Chicago and four months before the November election. What lessons do you think the Democratic Party has learned or is learning as a result of what’s happened?

SEN. KAINE: Well, "is learning" because I think it’s in process. I mean, what I can tell you is that I’m campaigning myself, so I’m in Virginia all the time. And the degree of--and the degree of angst between June 27 and the decision last Sunday, I would walk in a room after room, people very nervous, worried, usually divided about what they thought should happen. And then I was in Hampton Roads doing campaign events with Congressman Bobby Scott on Sunday when the news broke, and what you saw was a momentum toward both energy and unity. We had unity before the debate, but we were low on energy. After the debate, we lacked energy and unity, and we need both to win. But what we saw when the announcement hit Sunday and Joe Biden put his strong support behind his vice president is this energy and unity starting to come together. So you need energy and unity to win. We were lacking. Now we see a credible path forward to having that energy and unity. But we have to--you know, we have to harvest it.

And look, I’ve been part of two history-making campaigns. I was on the inside of the Obama '08 campaign from October '06. It was a few people from Illinois and me, and it was extremely hard. We were successful, but it was extremely hard. And then I was on the ticket with Hillary, and we failed. Greatest success of my life, greatest failure of my life. Both were history-making campaigns. It's hard to make history. And so the energy and unity is great, but we should not be at all, you know, kind of rose-colored glasses about how hard this is going to be.

MR. CAPEHART: Okay. Now let’s talk about Vice President Kamala Harris. People have been marveling about--at her skills on the campaign trail, especially since the president bowed out. You served with her in the Senate for about five years. Has she been underestimated this whole time?

SEN. KAINE: That’s a really good question. I think in the Senate she wasn’t. I mean, I worked with Kamala in the Senate, particularly on maternal mortality issues, but I know how much my colleague Mark Warner valued her work on the Intel Committee and I know how much Dick Durbin valued her work on judiciary. So I don’t think she was underestimated.

But then, you know, you kind of fall into the VP cul-de-sac. I mean, you get to be vice president and I used to say to Mark Warner when I was his lieutenant governor, there’s only one way I know I can make news: Disagree with you on something. Other than that, I mean, it's kind of a tough job and so it ends up maybe taking some air out of the balloon.

But I think with Kamala what you saw is--and I don’t think the White House really used Kamala that well the first two and a half years. I don’t think they realized, hey, we've got a rockstar talent here, we should use her more. But once Dobbs was decided, Kamala was so powerful in speaking about the need for our country to be a place where people make their own reproductive decisions that the White House, it was like they kind of woke up and like, wait a minute, she is really, really good. And you can just see since June of 2022 I guess it was, her profile has really elevated, and that actually has made her even better so that now with the main Klieg lights on and this very tough challenge ahead of her, you see her being tough but tough with a smile on her face, tough by funny, talking about serious stuff but not taking herself too seriously, I think she’s just kind of got the skillset. And in the last two years in particular it’s really been well-honed.

MR. CAPEHART: Yeah, in an interview in 2023, at the end of '23, I asked her about, you know, her going around the country, especially after the leak of the Dobbs decision, and she told me that she told her staff, quote, I want--I’m getting the F- out of town.

SEN. KAINE: Yeah, right.

MR. CAPEHART: And going across the country and talking about this. Her campaign--

SEN. KAINE: She learned that from Joe Biden.

[Laughter]

That’s a Biden-Harris, you know, kind of linguistic thing.

MR. CAPEHART: It’s spicy language. She has delivered at least three campaign speeches--one to the campaign staff in Wilmington, one to the sorority, one of the Divine Nine, and one yesterday to the Teachers’ Union, and they each have the same--I mean, she’s rolling out the same lines. And they have two notable lines in the speeches. One, "We’re not going back."

SEN. KAINE: Yeah.

MR. CAPEHART: And two, "I know Trump’s type." After rattling--and she says that after rattling off all the criminals she’s prosecuted as San Francisco district attorney and the California attorney general. Are they effective attack lines, and how does she shake up the race?

SEN. KAINE: I think the--I’ll take them in kind of the reverse order, "I know Trump’s type." I think the prosecutor v. felon that one is just a story that writes itself. So obviously that is such a powerful story and that’s--you’re going to hear that line a lot. But I think the one that is even the more powerful one is yesterday v. tomorrow. Donald Trump is yesterday’s chaos, and why would we go back to it? and Kamala Harris, plus she’s going to pick a great VP--I don’t know who, but she’ll pick a great one--that’s today and tomorrow. And in any race, in any race, if you can make it about yesterday versus today and tomorrow, when you frame the race the right way and today and tomorrow is going to win in my expectation. And I think that that’s why I’m seeing this huge upsurge of energy. What we’re seeing around Virginia is volunteers are flooding in. Everybody suddenly wants convention tickets when nobody wanted to go to the--I mean, Chicago’s a great city but not so much in August. Now everybody wants convention tickets. The energy, the small dollar donors, that’s all picking up. And I think that’s the yesterday/tomorrow frame.

We were really wondering about youth energy, you know? And I was worried about it in my race. and we do well when young people really participate. We don’t do well when they don’t. We’re seeing that pick up in a very dramatic way. Now the only problem for a 66-year-old is it involves a whole lot of cultural references I don’t get. But that’s fine, you know?

MR. CAPEHART: I mean, as a 57-year-old, I get--I now get the whole coconut tree, the emojis that I’ve been seeing. But this brat thing, I am lost. It’s like the whole Kendrick-Drake thing. I’m--you know, just leave me out of it.

There’s a new poll from the New York Times--New York Times-CNN poll which has driven me to distraction because of its whole, you know, Black men or Black African Americans are going to Trump, he’s got 20 percent support. And I’m like, do you know any Black people? And I don’t mean--I don’t mean to diss The New York Times, but still.

[Laughter]

SEN. KAINE: You can say that.

MR. CAPEHART: That being said, the new New York Times-CNN poll shows the race, which has always been within the margin of error, is now even closer with Donald Trump at 48 percent and Vice President Harris at 47 percent. And I bring that up because we have an audience question from Ken Stiles in North Carolina. And Ken asks, what will be the biggest challenge for Kamala Harris in the days ahead?

MR. CAINE: So the polling and then that question, Kamala has an unrealized upside. You know, we've not been promoting Kamala as our nominee for a year. So she's been--she's a week in to being our nominee. And she has an upside. She's not known as well as Joe Biden and Donald Trump were known, and so that means the Rs are going to be saying, you know, wacky stuff about her and trying to bring her down, but she has an unrealized upside. and then she's going to add a VP that's also going to bring an upside, a critical state, a critical skill set, an interesting bio. So there's a big upside still that we can harvest.

And so the most important thing for Kamala but really all of us, you know, the Dem candidates and Dem officials is tell the story and boost the upside of both Kamala and her running mate. And I think that that she starts as lesser known but kind of dead heat, which is where the Biden race was before he pulled out in Virginia and had gone from him up by kind of mid-single digits to just dead even in both private and public polling. But I think that's a good place for her to start. But she's got an upside that's not yet been realized. And that's what she and her team, really all of us have to--

MR. CAPEHART: One line of attack from Republicans in the Trump campaign is that the vice president is extremely liberal. They've been handing out a 2019 GovTrack survey that showed her ranked as the most liberal U.S. senator. Will this attack land, and how damaging will it be for voters who haven't yet decided?

SEN. KAINE: You know, you can expect that attack and you could expect that if she was, you know, the least liberal Democrat on that survey. That's just the stock and trade attack. I think the way that Kamala deals with that is, okay, well, what are issues you care about? I mean, do you want lower cost prescription drugs? We've delivered them. What’s liberal about that? I think that's common sense.

How about a GDP rate that just is knocking out of the park? How about the best economic recovery of any nation in the world post-Covid? How about we're building again? How about we're manufacturing again?

The one--the one piece of advice that I would have for the campaign is, Joe Biden did a great job at the State of the Union, and the campaign had kind of tracked that theme of freedom and democracy--really important themes, freedom, reproductive freedom, voting rights, democracy at home, democracy abroad. But the economy isn't in that theme, and the Rs are going to talk about inflation a lot. And so Kamala has such a great economic record to run on with Joe Biden, and what we've done as Democrats in Congress, that I think a way to puncture the label is what's liberal about lower cost prescription drugs, you know? What's liberal about we're building again, and infrastructure? And I think she can lean into the economic successes that people are feeling in every part of the commonwealth and country.

MR. CAPEHART: Some other attacks from some Republicans have been, oh, how shall we say, racist and sexist, including Congressman Tim Burchett of Tennessee, who called her a, quote, "DEI hire." Will this attack land?

SEN. KAINE: It's going to backfire big time. But look, when your leaders have to write a letter to House members telling them not to say racist and sexist things, you know, important safety tip. But they're not going to be able to help themselves. But you know, I don't have a Ph.D. in misogyny because I'm a man, but I got a master's degree in misogyny being on the ticket with Hillary and watching the degree of misogyny. You know, just from outright misogyny, memes and things that were horrible to the lock her up stuff, to Comey basically following a set of rules with respect to Trump--you don't talk about a pending investigation, you don't inject controversy into the closing phase of a campaign--but then violating that set of rules with respect to Hillary, double standardism. And so that's a real thing. And it's not like anybody's waved a magic wand and made it disappear since 2016.

So I think the challenge, though, for those kinds of attacks, is those attacks work with people who were not Kamala voters. They haven't been within five time zones of being a Kamala voter, but I think they can really energize Democrats and anger independents. And so I think the Rs, they’ll go there. They--I know them. They'll go there. They'll keep going there. I think it'll energize Dems and anger independents.

MR. CAPEHART: Okay. And so since you brought it up, and I brought it up in your intro, being that you were the vice presidential nominee in 2016, where were you when you got the call?

SEN. KAINE: I was in a--in a back room at a marina surrounded by like these 20-gallon water jugs that they put into the water dispensers. I was doing an event with Jack Reed in Rhode Island and they said, hey, you're going to get a call in a few minutes from Hillary, and it'll probably be good news. This was a Friday. And so they escorted me into the back room of the marina, and it was very pedestrian surroundings but a very memorable moment. and I said this to Jonathan, she said, I'd like you to be my running mate. And I started to say yes, and she said, don't say anything tell I tell you why. So, I shut up. And she said there are better political picks than you, but you've been--you've been a mayor and a governor and you're a senator on the Armed Services and Foreign Relations Committee. If something were to happen to me, you could be a good president. Putting duty and the job over the politics, which is very Hillary, very Hillary. So a real memorable moment.

MR. CAPEHART: So then given that and given your experience, what does that tell you about what the Harris team should consider when choosing a running mate?

SEN. KAINE: I didn't mention the deciding factor because it goes without saying, and Hillary didn't need to say it to me, you got to have a chemistry. So the candidates that you see mentioned that the Harris team is vetting all have an interesting bio. They all bring something to the table politically. Some would put electoral votes in play. Some would help us win a critical Senate race. They all have some powerful qualities. And Hillary--and Kamala would be looking at those qualities and trying and looking at some polling and trying to decide who's best. But at the end of the day, it is a relationship with a person, that you have to be able to count on them being brutally honest with you and completely candid in a closed room, and then completely supportive outside the closed room. And that is a unique relationship. You're trying to pick somebody that will help you be better at the job by being candid with you and who has some expertise to really give you meaningful advice, but that you can then completely count on to be loyal outside the room. And that is a chemistry call.

And so, you know, I think--I think what Kamala will see is, she'll have a lot of people who will get over the hurdles, and then it will be, okay, here's some folks that got over all the high hurdles. Now from a chemistry standpoint, what's going to be the best match?

MR. CAPEHART: The Washington Post today is reporting that the vice president has identified three top candidates, Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, and North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper. I don’t want to put you on the spot but--

SEN. KAINE: And I will refuse to be put on the spot.

MR. CAPEHART: Let me add some of the other names. Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Governor J.B. Pritzker of Illinois, Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota, Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Now that I’ve broadened the pool, you got a favorite?

SEN. KAINE: And let me just--on the pool, what two weeks means is the pool was seven or eight people. In Obama '08, Clinton 2016, I was vetted both times, it was 30 people, then 20, then 10, then 5, 3, 2, 1. The short timeframe does not mean you sacrifice in-depth analysis. It's just you have to have a much smaller field to do this by August 7.

She's got a lot of good directions to go. A lot of good directions to go. You know, I think we have a big talent pool. And it was kind of an odd race because there's a big talent pool on the Republican side with Republican youthful energetic types, and there's a big talent pool on the Democratic side. And it was a funny race where the two candidates were both, you know, more on the older side with this big talent pool beneath. But I think that we've got a big talent pool. I mean, I will say, of all those people, I served with Kelly on the Armed Services Committee. And I know he and Gabby socially, and I'm very, very close to them and think, you know, his track record before he was a senator, his work with Gabby on gun violence. You know, I can see Mark Kelly standing on a stage and saying my wife's really been affected by gun violence and President Trump's has too, and the difference between us is you guys think the solution is more automatic weapons. And we think the solution is more common sense. I could see him delivering a line like that and it working.

[Applause]

But look, Josh Shapiro, battleground state, might be the holy grail of the battleground states and a contested Senate race. Kelly's got a contested Senate race battleground state. Cooper, North Carolina is in play. Went for Obama in '08. Hasn’t gone since. But for a variety of reasons, including state politics, North Carolina is in play, and that would be a good one, and Cooper could help there and elsewhere. Andy Beshear, a real Appalachian. You know, that would--

[Laughter]

MR. CAPEHART: Oh, what are you trying to say, Senator? I know the control room has put more time on the clock, but I want to tell them to put more more time on the clock because I've got to get--I have to ask you.

SEN. KAINE: We’re now in stoppage time.

MR. CAPEHART: Three more questions. Vice President Harris is polling better than President Biden was in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

SEN. KAINE: Yeah.

MR. CAPEHRAT: This was a state that President Biden won by 10 points in 2020.

SEN. KAINE: Yeah.

MR. CAPEHART: Can Vice President Harris get that lead back?

SEN. KAINE: Yes. I don't know that--I don't know that we'll be at a 10 point. I don't think Virginia is a 10 point Democratic state. When Barack won in '08, McCain didn't compete there because why compete in Virginia? We've won it since 1964. Barack won by six, but it was artificially high because it wasn't a real competition. Romney did make a play for Virginia in 2012, and it was four. Hillary and I, it was six, but I probably added two. So, it's probably four. It was four. Biden and Harris won it by 10. That was post-Covid. You know, I mean, it just was a very--a big result that was a repudiation of Trumpism in the Covid era. But I don't think Virginia is a 10-point state. I don't think it's a six-point state. I think it's four- or five-point state. So, I don't--I don't foresee a Harris win at 10. But I would see a Harris win that we could get--I believe with the energy we can and we will--that will be kind of where, you know, the kind of four or five range that would be, I think, a natural place where Virginia is right now.

MR. CAPEHART: Donald Trump had agreed to two debates with President Biden.

SEN. KAINE: Yeah.

MR. CAPEHART: The horror of June 27 and one set for September 10. Vice President Harris has said I'll be there, and now Donald Trump is now saying he's not going to show up?

SEN. KAINE: Yeah.

MR. CAPEHART: Meanwhile, Fox News is saying, hey, we'll host a debate on September 17. Should the vice president show up for both those debates?

SEN. KAINE: Well, first in my own race, my opponent backed out of the debate last Saturday. I just have to say something about my own race here. So, Rs backing out of debates is kind of a stock and trade, and obviously Trump, there was one that he didn't do in in 2020. Look, you can run but you can’t hide. You can run but you can’t hide.

MR. CAPEHART: He’s scared. He’s really scared.

SEN. KAINE: He is nervous and he has good reason to be.

MR. CAPEHART: Okay. So and this--I swear this is--this is the last question, Senator. In 2023, you wrote an op-ed in The Washington Post that featured this image. I think we have it. We'll show it in a second. This is a picture you drew when you were five years old while watching a broadcast of President John F. Kennedy lying in state at the U.S. Capitol after his assassination. And as everyone can see, there is a flag-draped coffin, a building, and a flagpole. Tell us about this picture and how you think this historic moment we're in might be remembered in the decades to come.

SEN. KAINE: I had never seen my mother cry before, and I came home on a Friday from my morning kindergarten and my mother was crying. Mary Kathleen Kaine, very Irish Catholic, and she was crying in front of the TV. And when you see your parents cry for the first time, it makes a huge impression on you. I can remember that like it was yesterday.

What I didn't remember was two days later, Sunday, the 24th, 1963, there was a broadcast on TV of Kennedy lying in state in the Capitol and people filing by the flag-draped coffin. And my mom came into the TV room and she saw me drawing then, and so she dated it and put it in a file. And when my folks sold their home and moved into an apartment about 10 years ago, she came across it and she hadn't remembered it, nor had I, and she gave it to me and I--and I wrote a piece in The Post about it last November.

How's this moment going to be analyzed? And maybe in particular, I want to think about how young people see the world right now. A lot of young people are very disillusioned. The argument that democracy is on the line, turns out it doesn't work that well with young people because you have to have been illusioned before you can be disillusioned. And young people have gone through Covid, and they've gone through, you know, strife globally. And they've seen economic challenges. Covid was about death and illness, but it was also about economic challenges and missing your senior year in high school and not playing football, not going to the prom, to having to do virtual learning. So I think a lot of young people now look at adults and feel like you guys have kind of messed the world up.

But I felt--Kennedy was killed when I was five. Then I go out at 10 and pick up the paper on the driveway because I was the early riser and it's April and Martin Luther King has been assassinated. In June of '68, Bobby has been assassinated. By the time I'm 16, Nixon resigns as president. My formation as a young person was chaos. Vietnam War. People getting fire hosed for doing civil rights marches. That's the way I viewed the world coming up, is it was chaotic.

But I saw something else. I saw young people marching against the war and the war coming to an end. I saw young people playing a critical role in convincing LBJ not to run again, young people getting the voting age changed from 21 to 18, and civil rights marchers helping us achieve civil rights victory. So, what I learned at that moment--and I kind of hope young people might feel this too--if you feel like adults have messed up the world, there's evidence to support your proposition. But the lesson of that generation was, what did young people do? They engaged and they made change. They made positive change.

When young people engage, I have complete confidence that things are going to go well. And when young people don't engage--I mean, Brexit, the Brexit vote--youth turnout was really low. Young people overwhelmingly were against Brexit, but the turnout was low. And so they ended up getting a society that they didn't want. And it's been, in my view, a real disaster for the UK. It was a horrible thing. Young people didn't engage.

But the lesson as I look back at this picture and then I wrote about it was it was a chaotic time. And I imagine young people feel bad about today. But the lesson of that era is when young people engage, things get better. And I still believe that's true.

MR. CAPEHART: And as you wrote--and I quote you to you--"They were reminding us of the things we had been promised about our country, just as young people do today. Time and again, their advocacy lifted the gloom, and I've never forgotten that."

Senator Tim Kaine, a Democrat from the great Commonwealth of Virginia, thank you for coming to this special live edition of "First Look."

SEN. KAINE: That was good. Thanks for ending with that. Yeah, all right. I’m off.

MR. CAPEHART: Hold on.

SEN. KAINE: Okay.

MR. CAPEHART: I'll be back. All right, the senator literally has to run, but I'll be back in a moment with my colleagues who've been reporting on this unprecedented--this election, full of twists and turns and weekend breaking news alerts. But first, here's a short video recapping the last 13 days.

[Video plays]

MR. CAPEHART: Joining me now to make it all make sense, Dan Balz, chief correspondent for The Washington Post;

Leigh Ann Caldwell, anchor at Washington Post Live and coauthor of The Early Brief newsletter;

and White House correspondent, Tyler Pager.

Dan, Leigh Ann, Tyler, welcome back to First Look.

MR. BALZ: Thank you, Jonathan.

MR. CAPEHART: Gee, can you believe that that's 13 days, Dan, since we were on this stage, a mere two weeks ago, the former president has been shot; the incumbent president has dropped out of a race for the first time in 55 years; and a whole new election is shaping up.

So, Dan, where does the 2024 election stand right now?

MR. BALZ: You're asking me?

MR. CAPEHART: Yeah.

MR. BALZ: You know, I guess what I would say is we're in a crystalizing moment and an opaque moment, at the same time.

The crystallization is the change, the sudden change, within the Democratic Party, which we've seen literally in the hours after the president said he was not going to run again, Kamala Harris's ability to consolidate the Democratic Party and, as Senator Kaine was saying, to create a sense of energy that simply wasn't there.

But it's opaque in part because it's going to take a few weeks for this to settle down and to shake out. Clearly, the former president is flummoxed at this point, with a new opponent and an opponent that he didn't expect and an opponent that he's not quite clear about how he should take her on.

But also, we don't know--I mean, she's had an extremely good week, you know, Robby Mook, who ran the Hillary campaign in 2016 said early in the week, she's had a “perfect 48 hours.” That's been extended through the week, but there's still more that we will learn about the vice president as a presidential candidate. There's still a lot more that's going to be thrown at her. And we will see, you know, within a matter of weeks, what this race really looks like.

It is a different race. She's in a stronger position than Joe Biden was when we talked two weeks ago; there's no question about that. What we don't know is how--will that hold up? Can she expand that? Will it fall back a bit?

MR. CAPEHART: Leigh Ann, you've been talking to people on Capitol Hill throughout this campaign. Were you surprised at how quickly Vice President Harris got Democrats from Congress and all around the country to coalesce around her candidacy?

MS. CALDWELL: Yes, absolutely. So, leading up to Biden dropping out, I was hearing from a lot of members of Congress. There was a lot of division on who should be the person should Biden step down.

There was a lot of hesitation that Kamala Harris was going to be able to do it and win. There was a lot of skepticism. People were pushing Gavin Newsom; others were pushing Gretchen Whitmer. People were hearing from donors, as well, that Kamala Harris couldn't win. And in the immediate after of Biden stepping down, there was still, like, anger among some people--some of the Biden loyalists who didn't want him to go. They thought that he was pushed out; they didn't like how it was handled; they didn't like people going public. The only reason that has subsided, I am told from multiple sources, is that because Kamala Harris was able to coalesce the party so quickly because it was a superb and perfect 48 hours.

So, now, all of the dissent, all of the hesitation, all of the concern has just washed away. My colleagues on the Hill reported this morning that, in a closed meeting, a member of Congress stood up and said, if Biden steps aside, we are only setting up Kamala Harris to fail.

They did not want to see Kamala Harris fail, the first potential Black woman president, the first Black woman nominee, and so there was a lot of nervousness.

But now, the fact that she was able to do it so quickly and clear the field, people are thrilled.

MR. CAPEHART: Let me follow up on one thing because I noticed--unless I missed it, the one thing you didn't mention was, yes, the president withdrew from the race, but then, 20-something minutes later endorsed his vice president. How much of a role did that play in helping the vice president coalesce the party around her?

MS. CALDWELL: It was huge. It was absolutely huge, because especially because so many people on the Hill still are so faithful to Joe Biden. And so, it really mattered. You know, the Progressive caucus who--about--I was told about 60 percent was still very much in Joe Biden's camp. Later that night, Sunday night, they held a vote via text message on if they should endorse Kamala Harris. It was nearly unanimous within--very quickly, and a large part of that is because Joe Biden, who they so loved, endorsed Kamala Harris.

MR. CAPEHART: You know, Tyler, since Biden's poor debate performance on June 27th he vowed at every turn that he was in the fight for the long haul. And then, on Wednesday night, we heard him speak about why he bowed out.

In the final days of his campaign, there was reporting that he was asking whether he had a path to victory and how Vice President Harris would fare if she were in the race.

What pushed him or led him to withdraw?

MR. PAGER: I think there are a few factors here, and I think it's important to just step back and remember is this is a man who's been in public office for most of his life, and what a significant and difficult decision it was for him to make. He still believes that he could defeat Donald Trump and still believes he's doing a very good job as president and has more work to be done. And that's part of why it took so long for him to step aside.

And there was a lot of regret about his decision not to run in 2015-2016, feeling that after Hillary lost, it was a mistake, that he could have defeated Trump. And that view has been vindicated by the 2020 performance. So, there was a lot that needed to coalesce around him. I think the two big factors were the pressure campaign was just unrelenting.

Leigh Ann and our colleagues on the Hill have done tremendous reporting just about behind the scenes, what Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, what they were doing on behalf of their members who were deeply concerned about Biden's, you know, impact on their own races. Polling showed a wide gulf between how Biden was running in some of these key battleground districts and how swing state senators who were up for reelection were. So, there was a lot of fear about that.

But then, also, there was some fresh polling that Biden got from his closest aides. Again, he was--again, as we recall--isolating in Rehoboth Beach at his vacation home with covid. And so, he's sort of there by himself. He calls his two closest--two of his longest-serving aides, Mike Donlon and Steve Ricchetti, over to the house and they look over some new polling that the campaign had done. We do not have full visibility into exactly what that polling said but, based on public polling and some of our reporting, we know that that polling showed that he was--the hole he was in was only growing deeper.

And I think that's another thing to note is, heading into this debate where we’ve now seen the fallout, he was losing to Trump, and the debate was supposed to be the pivot point at which he was going to change the shape of the race. The campaign had been telling us for months that the debate was an opportunity to set the stakes for the American people, remind them who Donald Trump was and say, look, you have two options: Joe Biden or Donald Trump.

That debate didn't not only do that, but it fully shattered the image that many Americans had of Joe Biden's ability to do the job. I mean, so, I think that was another exacerbating factor here is that not only was he losing before the debate, the debate made it much, much worse.

MR. CAPEHART: You know, Dan, you and some of our Post colleagues have reported on how voters in swing states are reacting to Vice President Harris's candidacy. What did you find out? I mean, does she bring any states back into play?

MR. BALZ: That's a really interesting question. We've been doing something we call the deciders' poll, which is a unique polling operation that we're doing with Scott Clement and Emily Guskin who runs our polling team, in which we've identified people in the six battleground states who are either not firmly committed or do not have a vote history that can guarantee that they will definitely turn out.

It's a substantial number of people and we went back to them overnight, Sunday night, with kind of a flash poll and asked them, how do you respond to Kamala Harris? What we got was kind of a portrait of the electorate, as you might expect it. Democrats, for the most part, were quite positive about this. They had absorbed the decision by the president to step aside. They do or do not know Kamala Harris well, but they were impressed. They thought this would bring energy to the ticket, that this would give the Democrats a better chance of winning.

Republicans, on the other hand, or people who lean Republican, were quite critical. They do not have a high opinion of her. They don't know her terribly well. They know kind of the stereotype that has been fostered, particularly in some of the conservative media. And they were more--you know, they were more skeptical of her, hostile to her. So, does she bring other states in play? We don't know that for sure, but every poll that has come out since all of this happened indicates that she's doing better in those places than President Biden was.

So, does she bring Arizona back into play? Maybe. Does she bring Georgia back into play? That's questionable but, because of the significance of the Black vote in Georgia, maybe that's a possibility, but we're going to have to know more. The path for the Democrats is still through the upper Midwest states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

And if she can bring something else into play, so much the better for Democrats.

MR. CAPEHART: Leigh Ann, I want to pick up on Dan talking about the stereotypes that are being hurled at the vice president, and Senator Kaine talked about it a moment ago, where he said, you know, it's kind of--it says something when the leader of the party in Congress has to tell his members, you know, lay off the racism and sexism.

Is Speaker Johnson going to be successful in keeping his members from calling the Vice President of the United States a “DEI hire,” and then--this other guy--I've got to find it because I can't believe people say this stuff out loud, but I can believe people say this stuff out loud, Congressman Glenn Grothman of Wisconsin who said that the Democrats had to--were going to stick with Vice President Harris because they, "feel they have to stick with her because of her ethnic background."

Can we talk about the House Republicans and is Speaker Johnson going to be successful in curbing his members from straying into such things?

MS. CALDWELL: Hmm. How do I...

MR. CAPEHART: You can either pass, phone a friend, or...

[Laughter]

MS. CALDWELL: Can you ask the editorial--the opinions people this question? No, but--

MR. CAPEHART: I'm just asking, it's about the Speaker and does the Speaker have control of his caucus when it comes to this? Do you...

MS. CALDWELL: Well, I'll say this: the Speaker knows that he wants the Republicans to win the presidency. He wants Republicans to win the House, especially. I mean, of course, he wants the Republicans to win the Senate. The Speaker is smart enough to know that attacking the Democratic candidate for her race and gender might not be appealing to the women voters that Republicans so desperately need to win their reelection, or to win, and those Black voters and voters of color that, before Joe Biden had dropped out, polling had shown some were at least Trump-curious.

[Laughter]

MS. CALDWELL: So, you know, it's politics. And the Speaker is trying to remind them that it's about winning. Some Republicans, I think, innately say what they believe, whether it is good politics or not.

MR. CAPEHART: Leigh Ann, I want to apologize in front of everyone for putting you on the spot with that question.

Let's talk about the Trump-Vance ticket, and Tyler, the Trump campaign has talked a lot about finding and mobilizing low-propensity voters. Is that working? How effectively is that working for them?

MR. PAGER: It's a great question and I think it's too early to say on a lot of this. I think the fundamental changes we've seen in the race leave a lot, as Dan was saying, unknown.

We are seeing some reporting that Trump is maybe not so thrilled about his pick for J.D. Vance and--

MR. CAPEHART: Yeah, I'm about to ask Dan about that.

MR. PAGER: I would defer to the expert on that. But I think that they--you know, Trump has been running for president since 2016. And his strategy and for all the conversations about his rhetoric changing and him being chastened by, you know, this assassination attempt, those headlines come not from The Washington Post but from other publications, and then he quickly disproves them right away.

So, I don't think that we're expecting to see a lot of change about his abilities, his message, his campaign tactics. But I will say there is--he is still winning this race at this point. Polling continues to show him holding narrow leads nationally and in swing states. So, what he is doing has been working to this point. I think as Dan was saying at the opening here, there is so much we don't know at this point.

I think as Dan was saying at the opening here, there is so much we don't know at this point. There will be three--by the time Kamala Harris picks her vice presidential nominee, which we expect in the coming days if not within two weeks, there will be three out of the four people on this presidential ticket, the Democratic and Republican side, that are largely totally new to voters: J.D. Vance, Kamala Harris, and whoever her running mate is.

And that is just a tremendous fact. The election is just over a hundred days away. That's now how the American political system has worked. I saw a very fascinating statistic that I think since 1972, with the exception of a few elections, there has been a Bush, Clinton, or Biden on every single presidential ticket. So, that's a remarkable fact, given how many people live in this country, how many elections we've had, this sort of consistent nature of American politics over the last many decades, and that has changed dramatically.

MR. BALZ: Yeah.

MR. CAPEHART: Okay, Dan. So, it's been two weeks since Donald Trump chose Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate, and as Tyler alluded, it sounds like he's having a little bit of buyer's remorse at the selection, especially given the attention that Vice President Harris has received.

How--from your assessment of covering politics all these decades, how is Senator Vance doing and do you think Donald Trump is feeling a little itchy about his selection as a running mate.

MR. BALZ: Well, I think it's clear that Donald Trump is feeling itchy about a lot of things right now, because this is a totally different race. I don't know what he thinks personally about J.D. Vance, but the senator has not had a good introduction to the American people.

Normally, a vice president is selected; there is some sense of euphoria about that; the party is happy about that. They tend to like the selections that are made and, over time, the vice president fades into the background and as we get into September and particularly October, we're back to the choice between the two presidential nominees and there's not a lot of role that the vice presidents play.

You know, I think back to when John McCain picked Sarah Palin, which was a huge surprise--

MR. CAPEHART: Oh, I remember. that was huge.

MR. BALZ: --huge surprise. She was unknown. She had a great introduction at the Republican convention, gave a terrific speech. Then, as we all remember, she imploded during the Katie Couric interview and became a liability to McCain.

I don't think in any way that she was the reason that he lost that race; there were other factors. But so far, J.D. Vance does not seem to be adding anything to the Republican ticket and maybe taking things away. There's enough about what he has said. I mean, this line about, you know, women who are childless and cat ladies has gotten a tremendous blowback among a lot of people. And it's things like that that are in his--that are in his background that are going to continue to cause him problems.

MR. CAPEHART: Imma just leave that alone.

[Laughter]

MR. CAPEHART: I'm going to tell the control room, you've got to add more time to the clock, because I've got three more questions, and this one is coming from the audience, and I'd like to get all of you to respond, if you'd like.

This is from Robert Leahy from Maryland, "Do you think Trump will debate Vice President Harris? If so, any thoughts on how it might go?"

Dan? And you can take either one of the questions. You don't have to answer the whole thing.

MR. BALZ: I think he will and I think--I do think he will

MR. CAPEHART: Really?

MR. BALZ: --and I don't think it will go as well as the first debate with Joe Biden.

MR. CAPEHART: Wait. Won't go as well for whom?

MR. BALZ: For Donald Trump.

MR. CAPEHART: For Donald Trump. You really think he's going to show up?

MR. BALZ: Mm-hmm.

MR. CAPEHART: Okay. Either of you can pass on that.

MR. PAGER: I think that the polls will tighten or she will climb ahead by the time that the September debate comes around and he will see it as an opportunity to make up ground. In a similar that Biden was--you know, set the terms of the debate on his own accord feeling that he wanted--or his aides wanting to do it earlier. I think that Trump will start to see the commentary that he pulled out of the debate, that he can't debate a woman.

That will get under his skin, and I also think that it will be an opportunity--he thinks that he did so well against Biden; he could do the same against Harris. She is a prosecutor. You know, she really gained a national profile from those Senate hearings when she, you know, aggressively questioned Trump officials. There's a clip that's being going around social media of her questioning Brett Kavanaugh during his confirmation hearings.

I think she will be well prepared and the contrast between how Biden did and how she will do will be quite stark.

MS. CALDWELL: I think that the risk calculation is going to be completely different. Like, for the Biden-Trump debate, it was high risk for Biden. For Trump-Harris debate, it's going to be a higher risk for Trump. And I agree, I think he has to do it. He doesn't have to, but I mean--

MR. CAPEHART: Yeah, he does. I think what--you mentioned the questioning of Brett Kavanaugh. My favorite questioning: then-Senator Harris's questioning was of then-Attorney General, Jeff Sessions, who got so flummoxed, to use your word, Dan, that the then-AG said, "You're making me nervous."

[Laughter]

MR. CAPEHART: Dan, you covered the Democratic National Convention for the Freeport Journal Standard in 1968, and that's a time that today's election has been compared with.

You've covered many presidential campaigns since. Where does this campaign, the 2024 campaign, fit into history for you?

MR. BALZ: Well, I mean, this is a historic campaign by any measure and it's one of the most--as we now know, one of the most interesting campaigns. It's historically significant because of the stakes that are involved in this election year, and we've known that from the very beginning. I mean, this is a very, very consequential election. What direction is America going to take in 2024? Is it going to go back to Donald Trump and all that means for the future of that country, or is it going to turn a page?

Now, as long as it was Trump versus Biden, this was not a future-oriented campaign. This was going to be a backward-looking campaign in one way or another. Vice President Harris being the nominee flips that script completely. So, this is now future versus past.

The other aspect of this is the elements of surprise in this election. I mean, just, as you were saying when we here two weeks ago, everything that has happened since then, you know, I don't know if we're going to have surprises of any magnitude like that between now and November.

MR. CAPEHART: Are you trying to tempt the gods? I mean, poor Tyler's face is like, “please, no.”

MR. PAGER: We haven't even gotten our--

MR. BALZ: Tyler will be on top of it, no matter what happens. As will Leigh Ann, I'm confident of that.

So, you know, it's hard to compare one campaign to another, '68 and this year, you know, people kind of lump them together, in part because Democrats are going back to Chicago. They're--you know, in that campaign, LBJ pulled out, decided he would not seek a second term. That happened so much earlier in the cycle than the decision by President Biden. But nonetheless, there are some parallels: a country divided in '68; a country divided this time. You know, two assassinations in 1968, an assassination attempt this time.

So, '68 stands uniquely, I think, in the annals of our politics because of--particularly because of everything that happened that year. That year alone was such a wrenching year. So, but you know, you get into these campaigns and each one is so fascinating in and of itself, and I think this one is proving to be even more so than we thought.

MR. CAPEHART: Leigh Ann and Tyler, this one is for you, and this is the last question. I'm just wondering, how would you summarize the experience of covering the breathtaking pace of events these past few weeks.

Leigh Ann, you go first.

MS. CALDWELL: Exhausting. Exhausting, but fun. I mean, before June 27th, the debate, it was really a very boring campaign to cover, struggling to figure out ideas about what to write about. It was just--the two most known candidates that we had seen running against each other. There was nothing new about either one of them and now we have a complete--everything's been turned upside down and it's fun again.

MR. CAPEHART: Tyler, the last time I saw you before today, was in Milwaukee. It was Wednesday, so the night that J.D. Vance was speaking. I was coming into the hall to get into place for PBS. And you were on the phone and you see Tyler--you look at Tyler right now. This is how I see Tyler all the time.

Not in that stairwell. Tyler was clearly talking to an editor on the phone and looking very frenzied and, like, sticking up for his story. And I say that because, Tyler, how has it been for you, because a lot's changed since that time I saw you in Milwaukee?

MR. PAGER: Yeah, it's been a whirlwind. I've spent a lot of time on the phone with both Leigh Ann and Dan trying to figure out what's going on and keep Washington Post readers ahead of the curve on this tremendous, historic story.

You know, I think we have--I don't know, speaking for myself, never worked as many hours in a short period of time as I've done over the past few weeks. I was with Biden. I traveled on Air Force One to Atlanta for the presidential debate and then spent the next four days in the sort of presidential bubble watching that unfold.

And since that day, I was the only print reporter inside the debate studio that night as the pool reporter. So, I've really seen this from up close from that day forward and it's just been truly remarkable. And I've covered the president every single day since he launched his campaign in 2019: traveled the world; traveled the country. And so, to see the arc of his career come to an end as it did has just been remarkable, and astonishing, frankly.

I think there's been moments every day Dan and I would check in. Is he going to drop out; is he not going to drop out? And he would debate--you know, depending on the day, this day went pretty well for Biden. This day, you know, the tides are turning.

And I think by the end, we knew it was going to reach the boiling point that it did where it was going to exit, but it's just a completely different environment now from covering the president running for reelection to covering the president and now his vice president running for reelection, seeing people involved in terms of the campaign apparatus, but a totally different story.

It's a remarkable privilege to be able to do it for The Washington Post. And I'm wary of Dan saying there can't be any more surprises. We still have more than a hundred days to go, but lucky to do it at an institution like The Post with people like Dan and Leigh Ann and yourself.

MR. CAPEHART: Tyler, I hope--I hope you get a book deal, because I didn't know you were the print pool reporter there in Atlanta. Talk about--

MS. CALDWELL: He already has one.

MR. PAGER: I have good news for you. With two colleagues, we've already signed a book deal way before all of this happened. So, after the election--

MR. CAPEHART: Oh, well, okay then.

Share this articleShare

[Applause]

MR. PAGER: With Josh Dawsey and Isaac Arnsdorf we're doing a book on the 2024 election, which we have been working on for many months before this all happened. So, I hope you all buy a copy next year.

MR. CAPEHART: I swear to God that was not a plug. I didn't know he had a book deal. Dang, Tyler.

Chief correspondent, Dan Balz; Leigh Ann Caldwell, anchor at Washington Post Live and coauthor of The Early Brief newsletter; and White House correspondent, Tyler Pager thank you all very much for coming back to First Look.

[Applause]

MR. CAPEHART: We will go to the Opinions roundtable in just a moment, but first watch this short clip from my 2019 conversation with then-Senator Kamala Harris about her run for San Francisco District Attorney.

[Video plays]

MR. CAPEHART: I encourage you to just, after you leave here, go on Google and watch the entire interview. It's only an hour, and you will get to see the real Kamala Harris.

But before then, let's go to the opinion side of The Washington Post, where we will find Washington Post associate editor Eugene Robinson--

[Applause]

MR. CAPEHART: --senior critic-at-large Robin Givhan--

[Applause]

MR. CAPEHART: --and contributing columnist Jim Geraghty. Gene, Robin, Jim, welcome to this live edition of "First Look."

[Applause]

MR. GERAGHTY: Thank you. Great to be here.

MR. CAPEHART: So as we just saw from that clip, Vice President Harris has defied expectations since her earliest days in politics in that exchange. She also emphasized the importance of coalition politics. Gene, what does the Harris coalition look like in 2024, and how does it differ from President Biden's?

MR. ROBINSON: Well, first, let me say how wonderful it is to see so many--

MR. CAPEHART: Right.

MR. ROBINSON: --people here live on Washington Post Live. It's great. So thank you all for coming.

[Applause]

MR. ROBINSON: So I do think her coalition is a bit different. I know that she hopes it's a bit different. I think she would hope to do--to perform more strongly with African American voters, with Hispanic voters, with young voters than President Biden might. And just in terms of what that means on election night, that means if you're looking at, you know, Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania, you're looking at maybe getting bigger numbers out of Milwaukee and out of Detroit and out of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh to offset rural areas that probably will go in pretty large margin for President Trump. So that's one thing.

And I think she hopes to run--President Biden was running pretty strongly with women voters. I think she will run more--she'll run better there, and it will get better and better if the Republicans keep talking the way they're talking.

[Laughter]

MR. GERAGHTY: That's going to--you know, then those numbers are going to go--you know, "childless cat ladies," is going--you know, that probably ratcheted it up a point or two. Okay.

[Laughter]

MR. CAPEHART: Well, let me get you to follow up on one other thing. The New York Times/Siena poll that's out that shows that there's a one-point--it's a one-point race with Donald Trump at 48, the Vice President Harris at 47 percent. But in an analysis of that poll, one thing, a strength of President Biden in the race was that he was doing really well with older voters.

MR. ROBINSON: Mm-hmm.

MR. CAPEHART: And in this poll, they show a slip among older voters for Vice President Harris. Should that be--should that be a concern for the Harris campaign?

MR. ROBINSON: Well, I'm sure they'll look at that number, because older voters actually vote as opposed to younger voters who only kind of sometimes vote. So I have no--I don't know why that would be.

I have actually heard from a few readers who said they were older, and they were upset that, in their view, in a kind of ageist way, President Biden was pushed out of the race. Now, I've heard that from, like, two people, but--

[Laughter]

MR. ROBINSON: But I did hear that from two people, and so who knows? If that's the reason, that's something they need to work on.

MR. CAPEHART: Well, I mean, and I have heard it from my mother--

[Laughter]

MR. CAPEHART: --and, you know, a little more obliquely, Aunt Gloria, who sent me an email unsolicited--

MR. ROBINSON: Okay.

MR. CAPEHART: --that she was upset when President Biden withdrew from the race. But it's not about them.

I want to go to this audience question before I come to you, Jim, and it's from Clare Ignatowski in Maryland, and she asks, "Does Kamala Harris have broad appeal so she can unify the party and defeat Donald Trump, or is she mostly perceived as a "coastal liberal"?

Jim, I'm going to come to you first on this, and then I'm going to come to you, Robin.

MR. GERAGHTY: Sure. In a perfect world, the Democratic nominee would have been raised in Pennsylvania, then moved to Wisconsin, then moved to Michigan, spent going to college in Georgia with a transfer year in North Carolina, and then maybe Nevada, and you'd have ties to all that.

So being raised your whole adult life in San Francisco, not ideal. But I think, look, she'll be running a national campaign.

MR. CAPEHART: Oakland. Correction.

MR. ROBINSON: Oakland.

MR. GERAGHTY: Oakland. But she was San Francisco DA.

MR. CAPEHART: San Francisco DA, but she grew up in Oakland. I just want to stand up for Oakland. Go on.

MR. GERAGHTY: Look, this is a night and day situation. You know, we were on this stage two weeks ago or so.

MR. CAPEHART: Yeah.

MR. GERAGHTY: Sorry. This month's been a long decade.

[Laughter]

MR. GERAGHTY: But, you know, and there was this nervousness about could the Democrats unify if Biden was not the nominee, and if it was any faster and more convenient, that unification would have been through a drive-thru lane.

[Laughter]

MR. GERAGHTY: This--you know, the party just--look, it is unnerving for Democrats to have the older candidate. It is unnerving for Democrats to have a candidate who turns 82 after the Election Day. Now it's back to a normal race. There's a younger candidate running against a crotchety old white guy, which is what Democrats are used to. And so now it's reset to the factory settings. It's not--

[Laughter]

MR. GERAGHTY: It's not going to be easy. It's not like, you know, you can say, oh, this thing's a slam dunk--

MR. CAPEHART: Right.

MR. GERAGHTY: --but now it's back to the normal circumstances of a typical presidential race.

MR. CAPEHART: Robin, do you agree with Jim on that? I would love your view.

MS. GIVHAN: Well, I mean, I would say that I don't think that the only people who are characterizing her as this sort of San Francisco liberal, which seems to be like the constant phrase coming from Donald Trump, "San Francisco liberal," "San Francisco liberal"--but she really--as you said, she grew up in--she was born in Oakland. And I think she is much more associated with Oakland and with her time in Washington as studying at Howard University and as a graduate of an HBCU and as a member of AKA, one of the divine nine Greek organizations. I think all of those things really characterize her much more so than San Francisco, because those are the things that she has leaned into, and those are the things that have really characterized her political career.

MR. CAPEHART: Let me stick with you.

MR. ROBINSON: Can I just jump in--

MR. CAPEHART: Yeah.

MR. ROBINSON: --with just one? I thought what Jim said was brilliant, but normal? You said this is normal? Donald Trump is--

MR. GERAGHTY: Compared to earlier.

[Laughter]

MR. ROBINSON: Donald Trump is in this race. This is not normal.

MR. CAPEHART: Point taken.

So, Robin, in a recent article, you observed that the country has a problem with women's ambition and autonomy, while also noting the men who have voiced their support for Harris, including Black men who you write have promised to stand in the breach against racism and sexism and misinformation. We have now seen two--well, there's a third, but I don't know her name.

MR. ROBINSON: The one from Wyoming, right?

MR. CAPEHART: The one who also used the phrase "DEI hire"?

MR. ROBINSON: Yeah.

MR. CAPEHART: I'd love your reaction to Congressman Burchett calling the vice president a "DEI hire" and Congressman Grothman saying Democrats, quote, "feel they have to stick with her because of her ethnic background," mindful that Speaker Johnson has told his colleagues to cut it out.

MS. GIVHAN: Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. Yeah, I mean, I was--well, first of all, I should say that I'm a childless dog lady, so I'll just own up to that.

[Laughter and applause]

MS. GIVHAN: I mean, I have to say that I was curious to see the way that men were going to respond to her initially, particularly Black men, and so I was sort of lurking on this enormous phone call and Zoom call.

MR. CAPEHART: Oh, wait. The 50,000 phone call?

MS. GIVHAN: Yes.

MR. CAPEHART: That one? Wow.

MS. GIVHAN: I know, I know. I intruded in the boys' club.

MR. CAPEHART: What'd you hear?

MS. GIVHAN: I mean, it was interesting to me because it felt very heartfelt. I mean, there were tears, and there were a lot of, I think, very honest conversations about concerns that as attorney general that she had incarcerated Black men. A lot of that was sort of debunked to some degree. There was a great deal of conversation about protection and about standing up for Black women. I thought a story that Bakari Sellers told about his wife and her experience in childbirth and having nearly died and how he had to stand up for a Black woman in a hospital and Kamala Harris was among the first people to reach out to him was really powerful. And the fact that they really felt like they needed to come together and not just vote, but really be protectors and guardians, I think, said a lot about the way that the Black men perceived themselves, perceived the way that they are often discussed in larger society, and I think it also spoke very highly of the way that Kamala Harris appealed to them.

MR. CAPEHART: You know, Gene, at the Republican National Convention and since then, many Republicans have mispronounced Kamala Harris's first name. What's up with that?

MR. ROBINSON: Oh, it's deliberate, and it's an attempt to mock and to get under her skin. You notice that Trump does it over and over and over again, and she just lets it roll off her back. And really, everybody does, and I think that's kind of the way to respond to it. It's juvenile.

MR. CAPEHART: Let me--as a follow-up, Trump's VP pick, Senator J.D. Vance, has leaned into the dog whistles since Harris became the presumptive nominee, saying that Harris should be, quote, "grateful"

MR. ROBINSON: Oh, yeah.

MR. CAPEHART: --"to live in this country, and that all she has done in her career is collect government checks." What's up with that?

MR. ROBINSON: Oh, you know what's up with that.

[Laughter]

MR. ROBINSON: You know exactly what's up with that. He's calling her a welfare queen is what he's doing and, you know, which is just, you know--I read, and I should have read it before, but I read her book last week, "The Truths We Hold." And she tells the life story that I think voters will get to know. She wasn't born to money. She didn't--nobody gave her anything. She is--you know, is a very bright, motivated, hardworking woman who worked very hard for everything she achieved and who's achieved an incredible amount, and she is--she's not some sort of, you know, airy San Francisco, you know, ultra-liberal person. And she's--you know, she wanted to be a prosecutor, and she wanted to be a prosecutor because she felt, yes, that the system was putting some people in jail who should not be incarcerated. And she tells a story of a woman who was in--you know, just a bystander who was sort of caught up in stuff when she was an intern in the Alameda County prosecutor's office, and she learned that if she pushed and pushed, she'd get this woman, who hadn't committed a crime, but was about to be locked up for the weekend--you know, she got her out. She saw the power of that, but she also saw that there are people who need to be in jail, and that no communities not only need but desperately want good, intelligent, cooperative policing and law enforcement than communities that are in crisis because of crime.

And so I think as people get to know, you know, her work as a prosecutor, what the things she did as Attorney General--I mean, she was drawing that check as District Attorney of San Francisco, Attorney General of the state of California, 40 million people, and a U.S. Senator from California. Those are some pretty prestigious and notable government checks to draw.

MR. CAPEHART: And among the most--

[Applause]

MR. CAPEHART: I mean, think about it. You don't just get a job. You've got an interview for the job. Those are tough interviews. You're going before the voters--

MR. GERAGHTY: Exactly.

MR. CAPEHART: --and asking them for their vote. Jim, what's up with that? What's up with Republicans leaning hard into--

MR. GERAGHTY: Yeah.

MR. CAPEHART: --stereotyping, racial stereotyping, racism, misogyny? Why?

MR. GERAGHTY: Jonathan, on the last panel, you asked whether Mike Johnson would be able to get his caucus to stop making comments that are incendiary and bomb-throwing. Forget some no-name Republican congressman you haven't heard of. Can they get the nominee and the vice presidential nominee to not make those kinds of comments?

[Laughter]

MR. GERAGHTY: And, you know, the previous panel, there was a discussion of will Trump debate. I think Trump will debate. I think if he doesn't debate--I think the answer today of I'm not going to debate--by the way, I forsake doing my Trump impression for a while after he was shot.

MR. ROBINSON: Don't do it, Jim.

MR. CAPEHART: Let it rip.

MR. GERAGHTY: [Affecting] Jonathan, Gene, Robin, it just--it didn't feel right. It just didn't feel right.

But as you can tell, I got over it.

[Laughter]

MR. GERAGHTY: But anyway, like, Trump will have to get up on that stage.

And the last debate, as I think I mentioned, it's not that Trump had a great night. It's that Biden had an abysmal night, and Biden had gone in wanting to say, hey, America, are you sure you want to go back to this guy? And because he looked aged and/or senile, he couldn't pivot to that. The country was too concerned with "Wait a minute. Wait. Can this guy still do this job for another four years?"

That's off the stage now. Trump had been playing the game on easy mode. Now it's not. Now there's somebody who can actually make an argument against him. He's going to have to go against it, and I find it extremely likely that Trump will be up on that stage. And at some point, like, you can tell from the way he speaks, from the way he acts, he sees her with contempt.

MR. ROBINSON: Mm-hmm.

MR. GERAGHTY: And that contemptuousness is not going to wear well on a debate stage. I don't know if it's guaranteed she's going to win, but I just figure--well, I assume at some point you're going to ask me about J.D. Vance.

MR. CAPEHART: We're--we're--sure. Go ahead.

[Laughter]

MR. ROBINSON: Okay. Roll on, Jim.

MR. GERAGHTY: First of all, every other option that Trump was considering, you could look at the electoral map and say it changes a little bit. If Glenn Youngkin was the pick, maybe we're asking, is Virginia a swing state? If Marco Rubio is the pick, we talk about Latinos. J.D. Vance is just not the kind of guy who's going to get any undecided voter off the couch.

[Laughter]

MR. GERAGHTY: I knew this crowd was going to get this.

MR. ROBINSON: Ooh. I see what you did there, Jim.

MR. CAPEHART: Oh, you nasty.

MR. ROBINSON: I see what you did there.

MR. GERAGHTY: But the second thing is that the reference to the "childless cat lady." That is the J.D. Vance of Hillary Clinton's basket of deplorables, that you--it's one thing to say, "Don't vote for my opponent. My opponent is a schmuck."

MR. ROBINSON: Yeah.

MR. GERAGHTY: It's another thing when you say, "Only don't vote for my opponent. Everybody who's supporting my opponent is a schmuck, and you should look down on them," and that's the--J.D. Vance adds nothing. Whereas comparison, even Doug Burgum, "Hi. I'm a boring, normal Midwestern"--you know, North Dakota governor. That could have helped Trump in a way. Instead, he doubled down on himself, and now you've got, you know--this whole like--you notice, oh, well, he's going to help in the blue wall states. You didn't see any jump in the poll numbers for Trump after he picked Vance in any of those blue wall states.

And just this morning, I think it was Saint Anselm had a poll in New Hampshire. This is one of those states that's usually pretty blue and, you know, was drifting kind of purple when Biden was--after the debate. Harris is up by six. I don't think you have to worry about those blue to purple states anymore.

MR. CAPEHART: Robin, as we've been discussing, race and gender are already playing an important role in this election. Trump's campaign has projected a hyper masculinity or at least its conception of it.

[Laughter]

MR. CAPEHART: It was a week ago last night. You had Hulk Hogan ripping open his--ripping open his shirt on stage. You had that other--who was that other guy?

MS. GIVHAN: Kid Rock.

MR. GERAGHTY: Dana White?

MR. CAPEHART: Kid Rock. You had Kid Rock up there, and then you had Donald Trump walking on stage to James Brown's "It's a Man's World." How do you see these narratives playing out in the months ahead? I mean, is--did the Trump campaign, the RNC, the Republican Party, make a mistake by--

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Yes.

[Laughter]

MR. CAPEHART: Okay. Thank you. Moving on.

Now, Robin.

MS. GIVHAN: Yeah, I mean, it's a very--it's an incredibly performative kind of masculinity, and it's a very stereotypical kind of masculinity. And I think the result of that is there's also an expectation of a very sort of cliché, stereotypical kind of femininity. And I think you saw that at the convention with a lot of the speakers, the female speakers who came to the podium. There is an expectation of how they should look, which seems to involve a lot of eye makeup and a lot of very long flowing hair and a lot of really high heels. And while there's nothing wrong with that, there does seem to be this idea that that is what, you know, a woman is supposed to look like.

And I think, you know, J.D. Vance's comments about, you know, the "childless cat lady" suggests that in this world in which he envisions the role of a woman is to be a walking uterus and to give birth. And if they don't do that, then they have failed--

MR. ROBINSON: Mm-hmm.

MS. GIVHAN: --in their purpose.

So I don't think it's the way--to me, the way that idea of masculinity helps them define how a woman should act and what she should be and what her aspirations should be.

And clearly, Kamala Harris defies all of those expectations, and so therefore, she is problematic.

MR. CAPEHART: Sorry. I was trying to look up something while you were answering a question. Let's talk about the vice presidential pick that Vice President Harris has to make for her race. Who should she pick? And this is for all of you. Who do you think she--who do you think she should pick, or who would you like to see be the Vice President Harris's running mate? There's Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina, Governor J.B. Pritzker of Illinois, Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota, Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Senator Mark Kelly from Arizona, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo who's from Rhode Island, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg who's from Indiana. Gene, who do--

MR. ROBINSON: Well--

MR. CAPEHART: Who do you think she should pick?

MR. ROBINSON: I'll give two answers. One is a collective answer of a subset of Washington Post columnists who were--we did a kind of a little poll which was published, I think, yesterday or last night. It's a prompt. But we did kind of a survey of a bunch of columnists, and so who would you pick? And we sort of tabulated. It was kind of ranked-choice voting. So it is one of these complicated systems. But Mark Kelly came out first. He came out on top and with the most first place votes. Second was Andy Beshear. He did not have the most first--second most first place votes, but his total was second. Third, I believe, was Josh Shapiro. And I forget who the others, but the others were--I mean the others were Tim Walz from Minnesota and a couple of others. But those first three were well ahead of the others.

And so I certainly see the arguments for Kelly. I'm not entirely sure that he puts Arizona back in play the way it was last time. You know Biden won it last time, and it did not look like Biden was going to win it this time. Does it put Arizona back in play for Harris? Maybe it does, but he's--you know he's a good politician. He was an astronaut. You know, he's married to Gabby Giffords. He's got a great sort of story, and he's got skills as a politician. And so I think at least that was the majority first choice.

My first pick was Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky. Now, he will--you know, the Democrats are not going to win Kentucky. Kentucky is not going to be in play. But I figure a Democrat who gets not only elected governor but reelected governor in Kentucky has got some mad political skills.

[Laughter]

MR. ROBINSON: And among them--and one thing that Beshear does--and he does it sincerely--is he talks a lot about his faith, which is a very deep and committed Christian faith. He talks about--he's able to work with a Republican-dominated legislature to make things happen, some things happen in Kentucky. And the voters like him.

So anyhow--but I could go either way.

MR. CAPEHART: After all that, "I could go either way?"

MR. ROBINSON: No, I could go either Kelly or Beshear.

MR. CAPEHART: Right.

MR. ROBINSON: I think they're both very good choices.

MR. CAPEHART: Uh-huh. Robin, who do you think? Who would you like to see?

MS. GIVHAN: Well, so I'm not a political analyst. So I'm just going to be very selfish as a journalist and say the stories that I would like to write would involve one of two people. Former Michigander, so I think Gretchen Whitmer would be a really interesting choice. I think she is incredible, incredibly skilled politician. She's very successful in Michigan. I think it would be interesting to have two women on a ticket, and I think that it could help us finally start talking about power and politics and authority in different ways, not just what it looks like, what it sounds like, what it feels like. I mean, I think it would just help us to really have, you know, a much bigger conversation about what it means to have authority and who has--and who has the right to have that kind of authority.

The other person is Pete Buttigieg, and that's because I also think it will force us to have, you know, really heartfelt and thoughtful conversations. And I'm also reminded because my dad, who, you know, was in his nineties and was a guy from Mississippi, was an enormous Pete Buttigieg fan. And, you know, during that big Democratic primary, you know, he would say to me that that guy is really smart and he's really thoughtful, and he really admired the way that Buttigieg could have a conversation about religion and faith and have it not be alienating but have it be uplifting and unifying.

MR. CAPEHART: I did a--at the family barbecue back in--

MS. GIVHAN: At the cookout?

MR. CAPEHART: Yes, at the cookout.

MR. ROBINSON: Yeah, right. [Laughs]

MR. CAPEHART: In 2019, I did an informal survey of everyone there, and, you know, Joe Biden got most of the votes of people because, you know, he rode with Obama, so we're going to ride with him. But the person who got the second most votes was then Mayor Pete, which really--which really surprised me. They couldn't--they didn't know his name. They couldn't say his name. They would say, "That little fella, that young fella, I like him."

Jim, who do you think Vice President Harris should pick?

MR. GERAGHTY: I had Whitmer second. One name that hasn't come up yet, the guy I had third and I think really deserves more attention, is Roy Cooper, Governor of North Carolina.

MR. ROBINSON: Yeah.

MR. GERAGHTY: This guy has won seven statewide races since 2000. If you need somebody who can take that red state and 15 electoral votes, take it out of the Republican pile and put it in the--that gives you a whole lot of flexibility in the blue wall and all the other swing states.

But I think out of a lot of pretty good options, the one who's, head and shoulders, above the rest is Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. I think he delivers Pennsylvania, and then you're one third of the way towards the blue wall. You know, he's Mr. Suburbs. He's Mr. Swing State. He's got a very high approval rating amongst independents, got a very high approval rating amongst Pennsylvania Republicans. Look at how he talked about the slain--Corey, the Trump supporter who was killed. This guy knows how to reach out to the other side and be classy and to elevate and to do all that stuff. And for anybody who's got a problem with the idea of a Jewish person on the Democratic ticket, take a long walk off a short Gaza pier.

[Laughter]

MR. CAPEHART: I was going to ask the indelicate question, because in my calculation, as I'm looking, you know, one of the questions is, can America handle that much change if the top of the ticket is Black and a woman? Can they handle the vice presidential nominee being another woman?

MS. GIVHAN: Oh, just rip the Band-Aid off.

MR. GERAGHTY: Is there genuine worry, "Oh, God, we're going to lose the anti-Semitic vote?" Lose them. Who needs them? Let them go to Trump, you know. Let them vote for--

MR. ROBINSON: Well, not that many of them, though, Jim. You know, how many do you think there are? Because there might be a lot of them. I don't know.

MR. CAPEHART: And, Gene, to that point, this is why this is part of the calculation, because as much as we don't like to talk about it, I think subconsciously it's part of the calculation among a lot of folks.

MR. ROBINSON: It's part of the calculation, but, you know, I'm checking myself now, because I kind of had some of these thoughts back in 2008 as, like, are they really going to vote for the Black guy with a name that sounds like it came off the Guantanamo list, you know? I mean--

[Laughter]

MR. ROBINSON: Really? And they did, right? I mean, they did in large numbers.

So I--you know, I'll think through it, but are they going to vote for the exotic Black lady and the Jewish guy, you know, at the same time? And maybe they are. My only question about Shapiro--and it's probably not a good question at all--is that some of the others have been through more, at least statewide election cycles. They've been vetted more. He just got to the governor's mansion. I think he had won a statewide race before that.

MR. GERAGHTY: As state attorney general, he won more votes than Biden in 2020.

MR. ROBINSON: Okay, okay.

MR. CAPEHART: Okay. That works.

MR. ROBINSON: So, you know, but that was--you know, go with him. Okay.

[Laughter]

MR. GERAGHTY: Super excited, right? It's Shapiro. Okay, good, yeah.

MR. CAPEHART: And one name--and I just want to be clear. One name that was not on my list on purpose was Governor Wes Moore of Maryland, simply because--

MR. ROBINSON: Oh, yeah.

MR. CAPEHART: --he has taken himself out, I think wisely, because he is also a first-term governor who's getting a lot done. And--

MR. ROBINSON: He's got to build a bridge.

[Laughter]

MR. ROBINSON: He's got this like huge bridge missing in his city that he--and he's got it--no, seriously.

MR. CAPEHART: Right.

MR. ROBINSON: He's got to build a bridge.

MR. CAPEHART: Right. And so, you know--

MR. ROBINSON: A real bridge.

MR. CAPEHART: Right, right, not a metaphorical bridge.

As you can see, we are out of time, but--so this is the very last question. And so--and be brief. Jim, we're going to go this way. Jim, I'm starting with you.

MR. GERAGHTY: Got it.

MR. CAPEHART: What should "First Look" viewers be watching this campaign season that others may not be?

MR. GERAGHTY: You notice we have not mentioned Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and I think if you notice--there's one poll that had him out high in Michigan, but otherwise, nationally, he's sinking like a stone. Every time somebody says, wow, this cycle is like 1968, I don't think anybody sweats more than Robert F. Kennedy Jr. But I'm pleased because it means that the Jets are going to win the Super Bowl.

But I think as we get closer to Election Day, the third party and independent candidates are going to shrink and become a real non-factor.

MR. CAPEHART: Robin, what do you think?

MS. GIVHAN: Well, I'm going to go back to, you know, what I mentioned earlier, which is just the way that we talk about power, and I'm hoping that, you know, there will be a different lens through which we see it so that we're not always asking politicians, like, to give us their bracket for--what is it? Basketball? Football?

MR. CAPEHART: Are you asking me?

MS. GIVHAN: Bracket situation.

MR. ROBINSON: Basketball.

MS. GIVHAN: Thank you. And feeling like that means something.

MR. CAPEHART: Gene?

MR. ROBINSON: Oh, I--look at the map. The path to victory, I think one change we've had in the map already, the minute--well, she hasn't actually become the official nominee yet, but once she became the presumptive nominee, Kamala Harris, I think, put Georgia back in play. And I think it was out of reach for Democrats, a great big old state, and that may be just one of the ways in which the map has changed, including if it were Roy Cooper on the ticket, North Carolina.

MR. CAPEHART: Pulitzer Prize-winning Washington Post associate editor, Eugene Robinson, Pulitzer Prize-winning senior critic-at-large Robin Givhan, contributing columnist Jim Geraghty, we're out of time. Thank you for coming to this special live edition of "First Look."

MR. ROBINSON: Thank you.

[Applause]

MR. CAPEHART: And thank you all for joining us, especially those of you here in person and for being loyal Post subscribers. We appreciate your support and this community of readers.

You know what? I'm going to talk to y'all because I've had my back to you this entire time. Journalists are said to write the first draft of history. We're so glad you've joined us to explore these first drafts on "First Look," and we're eager to use events like this to bring our readers closer to big stories. And I hope we get to do this again. This is only our second time.

[Applause and cheers]

MR. CAPEHART: So once again, I'm Jonathan Capehart, associate editor at The Washington Post. Thank you for joining us.

And for those of you here in person at The Post today, please join us in the lounge for coffee and conversations offstage. Thank you.

[Applause]

[End recorded session]

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Transcript: First Look - The Washington Post